Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.368284 3.649639 3.970629 4.371005 4.868057 5.481749 6.327893
2025-02-09 2.999653 3.354820 3.791102 4.388715 5.229470 6.459687 8.649358
2025-02-16 2.786565 3.180223 3.688044 4.431910 5.587930 7.567818 12.360201
2025-02-23 2.571173 2.965337 3.487170 4.280659 5.589628 8.083544 16.010335
2025-03-02 2.453851 2.861752 3.417113 4.297732 5.857435 9.282645 27.679861
2025-03-09 2.350391 2.764591 3.340946 4.286243 6.065486 10.551423 82.021810
2025-03-16 2.241493 2.650119 3.226324 4.191569 6.082240 11.355675 NaN
2025-03-23 2.194985 2.618096 3.228597 4.290461 6.531564 14.311594 NaN
2025-03-30 2.098910 2.508986 3.104095 4.149204 6.399426 14.752246 NaN
2025-04-06 2.008793 2.403835 2.978750 3.993212 6.199406 14.682245 NaN
2025-04-13 1.939859 2.326032 2.891046 3.897089 6.127514 15.336943 NaN
2025-04-20 1.917426 2.314198 2.904915 3.988785 6.556984 20.753443 NaN
2025-04-27 1.909881 2.325550 2.959343 4.172826 7.356169 43.583150 NaN
2025-05-04 1.871639 2.289106 2.933390 4.194717 7.698462 109.484323 NaN
2025-05-11 1.839522 2.260074 2.917291 4.234530 8.135024 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.780395 2.187304 2.823102 4.097030 7.866120 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.750292 2.157782 2.800632 4.112588 8.204286 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.718151 2.123696 2.768152 4.102124 8.442629 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.676401 2.073208 2.704726 4.015779 8.320481 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.663792 2.067396 2.718347 4.105966 9.065258 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.620085 2.011415 2.641094 3.977078 8.678135 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.575970 1.953863 2.559492 3.834241 8.205076 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.541581 1.910853 2.502341 3.745961 7.995142 NaN NaN